NFL DRAFT IS TONIGHT! | Mitch Lucas’ mock draft
Editor’s note: This is ETBlitz.com’s Mitch Lucas’ glimpse of how he believes tonight’s first round of the NFL Draft might look. He got 11 of the 32 first-round picks correct in 2023. Note that the Dallas Cowboys draft 24th (if they don’t trade up, or down) and the Houston Texans don’t actually have a first-round pick (unless they work some magic). If you want to see Mitch’s real-time thoughts DURING tonight’s draft, as it actually unfolds live, go to thefootballbeat.com, and he’ll be on LIVE. Just click on NFL DRAFT LIVE.
Everybody and their brother does a mock draft these days.
We decided to chime in.
Last year, our editor / publisher – well, that’d be me – got 11 of the 32 picks exactly right.
So I decided to throw my hat in the ring again.
I didn’t put any money on myself. We’re just going old school. We’ll see how many I get correct, and there’s a big matzo ball hanging out there (Seinfeld: George tries to say “I Love You”) at pick No. 3.
Here’s the fun part: on Thursday night, gonna do this live.
I’ll be back, on thefootballbeat.com live, doing a real-time update as the draft goes down. Click on our headline, “NFL DRAFT LIVE,” and I’ll be in there. Chat if you’d like, we’ll talk as things go down.
One of the most exciting nights of the year in the NFL is the draft’s first round. Here’s our shot at how we think it could go.
1. Chicago: CALEB WILLIAMS, quarterback, Southern Cal. Williams, who won the Heisman Trophy at the end of the 2022 season, has been the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 pick in this draft for a year. Anything but Williams in this spot would be a major shock, and there’s no question, talent-wise, he looks to be the best quarterback at this moment in time in this draft.
But.
I can’t help but think back to the painted fingernails with an explicit (F-YOU) message against Utah, the pouting on the bench during losses, and some of his leadership failures. Did we all make mistakes at 20, 21, 22 years old? Yes.
But nobody handed most of us the keys to an NFL franchise.
That being said, physical measurements and on the field, it’s easy to argue his case. He’s 6-foot-1, 214 pounds, went 266-of-388 for 3,633 yards, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions last year, averaged 9.4 yards a completion and led the team with 11 rushing touchdowns. In his Heisman season in 2022, he completed 333-of-500 passes for 4,537 yards, again just threw 5 interceptions, ran for 382 rushing yards (a single-season school record, and 10 touchdowns in 14 starts.
Let me just say: there is NO WAY ON GOD’S GREEN EARTH that Caleb Williams is NOT the pick here. It’s him, period, case closed. The Bears are drafting Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. And if they did anything else, it’s a mistake.
2. Washington: JALEN DANIELS, quarterback, LSU. If it seems like this is like the 445th reboot for Washington in the last – oh, I don’t know – six years, it’s because it is. The franchise drafted Robert Griffin III (and Kirk Cousins) in the 2011 draft and that seems like a lifetime ago. Drafting two quarterbacks that year was probably also the start of their downfall – how’d you like to be a top-five pick and have them draft your potential successor in the same freakin’ draft?
At any rate, back to Daniels. This guy, slim and, well, just slight, as he may be, is the reigning Heisman Trophy-winner. He’s the only player in FBS history – think about this, now, in the history of what most of us call Division I – to throw for over 12,000 yards and run for over 3,000 yards. And last season, he took a big leap, got better. He completed 236-of-327 passes (72 percent) for 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns and four interceptions. Just four. And he ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 starts. I hope the Commanders DO draft Daniels – and then maybe quit calling themselves the Commanders, and get rid of those gosh-awful uniforms next.
3. New England: MARVIN HARRISON JR., wide receiver, Ohio State. Surprise, surprise. And if this is what happens here – if the Patriots DON’T select a quarterback, as I suspect they indeed will not – it’s going to throw everything out of whack. But something tells me that first-year coach Jerod Mayo (and owner Robert Kraft) see something in Bailey Zappe. I may completely whiff here. But imagine Harrison thrown into the offense, rejuvenating it, and Zappe NOT having to look over his shoulder.
The other thing I could see here is a defensive player, like a Dallas Turner, the edge-rusher from Alabama, but as much as I like Turner, I think any defensive player right here is a reach with talents like Harrison on the board. Another player to watch here – a player I believe could be the best overall offensive player in this draft – is Georgia tight end Brock Bowers.
4. Minnesota (TRADE with Arizona): DRAKE MAYE, quarterback, North Carolina. I think a lot of the J.J. McCarthy jibber-jabber is just that: jibber-jabber. I’m not slighting McCarthy. I think he’s a good quarterback, and I believe he will go somewhere between the second and fourth rounds. I don’t believe he’ll go anywhere near this spot and if he does, it’s a drastic over-reach. Maye is being drafted on potential, but aren’t they all? He’s 6-foot-4, 223 pounds, is a threat to move from the pocket, and threw for over 4,300 yards two seasons ago. A negative: he throws some picks: 16 in the last two seasons. If the Vikings can resist the temptation to trade away key pieces (see Jefferson, Justin – why in the world would you trade him?!), they could build something special here quickly.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: MALIK NABERS, wide receiver, LSU. Boy, would this be the first-round steal of the draft and make quarterback Justin Herbert happy. For anyone who’s never seen him, Nabers is only 6 foot, so he’s not your stereotypical, prototypical NFL-body wide-out. But he is the all-time leader in receptions and yards at a LSU, a program, like Alabama, that turns out receivers like a factory. He had a 4.35-second time in the 40-yard-dash at the LSU pro day in March. And I may be wrong: he may not even BE on the board when the Chargers draft at five. He’s that good.
6. New York Giants: TERRION ARNOLD, cornerback, Alabama. I may be wrong here. I have corner as a position of need for the Giants, and Arnold (left) is the best corner on my board. I also have running back and quarterback on my positions of need for the Giants. But I just believe it’s way to early for them to panic to take a QB, although they do not draft again until 47. If they REALLY DO covet McCarthy, or Bo Nix, or Michael Penix, or Maye or someone still on the board at six, maybe they’ll take him. I think a couple of those guys MIGHT still be on the board when they pick, or they can make a package and come back up from 47 into the bottom of the first round and make a pick.
Regarding Arnold, he was a late-bloomer at ‘Bama, and he’s a bit on the short-ish side for a corner at 6 foot, but he has long arms and is a ball-hawking corner. He had five interceptions in the 2023 season, doesn’t mind coming up to hit or make the tackle, and is a defensive leader in the secondary. On the TFB draft board, I have him ranked just above his teammate, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Toledo DB Quinyon Mitchell.
7. Tennessee: DALLAS TURNER, edge, Alabama. Now, here’s a bad, bad man
Turner was a tone-setter for the Alabama defense, not just the pass rush. He had a 4.6 in the 40, so he’s fast. He’s not afraid and doesn’t shy away from making the big hit in the tough spots. As Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (Quinn Ewers injured after being landed on by Dallas Turner). The Krispy Kreme doughnut shop is one of Tuscaloosa’s hottest hang-outs for Alabama football players. With 22 ½ career sacks and 32 ½ tackles for loss for the Crimson Tide and every one of them on film, I’d bet a dozen glazed that Turner is the first or second defender off the board Thursday night.
8. Atlanta: BYRON MURPHY II, defensive tackle, Texas. If Turner is off the draft board like he is in this scenario, or even if he’s not, the Falcons really need to address their pass rush (or lack thereof). Murphy would definitely fit a need here. He’s big (a biscuit under 300 pounds), and often had to be double-teamed at Texas. If not Murphy or Turner, Atlanta could go best-player-available here. They could do little wrong at this point doing so.
9. Chicago: ROME ODUNZE, wide receiver, Washington. The Bears’ regular pick falls here – that first pick actually belonged to the (pitiful) Carolina Panthers, who lost it, really, via a trade with Chicago that went poorly, almost like a Thursday-night poker game. At any rate, Odunze IS that prototypical wide receiver: 6-3, 212 pounds, led the FBS with 1,640 receiving yards last year and is as smooth as silk moving upfield. As for the weather, hey, he’s played in the Pacific Northwest. Seems to be a natural fit to be a great target for Williams.
10. New York Jets: QUINYON MITCHELL, cornerback, Toledo. Here’s Mitchell, who should not be known as “the No. 2 corner” on this list. Just because he’s from Toledo, that’s not why we have him here. He could very well be drafted before Arnold. We have Arnold graded higher on OUR board. We’re guessing, which is what a mock draft does. He ran a 4.33 at the combine and over the last two years, he had 32 pass break-ups the last two, and 46 total in college. Very impressive.
11. Arizona (TRADE with Minnesota): XAVIER WORTHY, wide receiver, Texas. We’re quite a bit higher here at TFB on Worthy (right) than a lot of the other guys who do the mock drafts. He’s smallish (5-foot-11), but blistering fast, the fastest 40 time in 20 years (4.21 seconds), and we think of him on the field sort of like a Tyreek Hill-type player. He did have a drop problem, but seems to have gotten over that. He could be a fantastic weapon for Kyler Murray.
12. Denver: BO NIX, quarterback, Oregon. The second kind-of-controversial pick in our top 12 comes right here, by the Broncos, the first being by the Patriots NOT taking a quarterback but taking Marvin Harrison Jr. instead. We’re basing this on what we’re hearing, and what we’re hearing is that Denver loves a few of the quarterbacks in this draft, that New England is satisfied with the quarterback situation they have, and with Denver not drafting again until PICK SEVENTY-FREAKING-SIX, we believe the quarterback they’ll draft is here.
Now, who knows how much better Nix (above, right) will get? He’s played a ton of football, at Auburn and at Oregon. A lot of people compare him to Drew Brees. We see more of a gunslinger type, more of a Brett Favre type of player in Nix. Sean Payton may coach that out of him. But we here at TFB will be surprised if Nix falls past the Broncos at 12.
13. Las Vegas: JOE ALT, offensive tackle, Notre Dame. Here’s another case where the Raiders would be hard-pressed not to do the old BPA (best-player-available), because they have so many needs. Could they surprise everybody and take, say, Michael Penix, the talented quarterback out of Washington, and Nix and Penix go back-to-back? Sure, they could. Or if Arnold or Mitchell, either of those two corners, are still there, it could be them. Running back Josh Jacobs left in free agency (Green Bay) – could this be the spot we see a back taken? We’re betting on Alt here. He was a good tackle for the Fighting Irish and the Raiders need a building block. It’s not sexy, but it works. But if Penix is still on the board…
14. New Orleans: J.C. LATHAM, offensive tackle, Alabama. In our scenario, arguably the two most talented tackles in the draft go back-to-back at 13-14 to the Raiders and the Saints. Latham will be a plug-and-play player for the Saints, or should be. And at over 340 pounds, he’s quite a load. His accustomed position is right tackle; we’ll see if the Saints (or whomever drafts him) keep him there.
15. Indianapolis: ADONAI MITCHELL, wide receiver, Texas. A lot of draft “gurus” have Mitchell graded out higher than Worthy. And he may go higher than Worthy. We have Worthy going higher based on his speed and potential. That’s not to say Mitchell is “slow.” He ran a 4.34 40, is a very good route-runner, and has good size, at 6-foot-2, 205. He’s a proven big target, with 55 catches for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns, and was very good during his time at Georgia prior to transferring to Austin.
16. Seattle: BROCK BOWERS, tight end, Georgia. Here’s our guy, falling all the way to 16, midway through the first round. And if this happens, the Seattle Seahawks, who were known for their luck in the Pete Carroll era, will be very fortunate. Bowers appears to be not only the best tight end in this draft, but to the staff at TFB, the best overall offensive player in the draft – YES, maybe better than No. 1 projected pick Caleb Williams.
Bowers (left, at SEC Media Days) missed three games last year due to injury but still had 175 catches for 2,538 yards receiving as a Georgia Bulldog. ESPN’s Matt Miller compares him to George Kittle but we see far more of a comparison to Rob Gronkowski in Bowers, and if he can stay healthy, a generational talent at tight end for the Seahawks.
17. Jacksonville: JARED VERSE, edge, Florida State. Big (6-4, 254 pounds, is what we see him listed at), and fast off the edge, began his career at small-school Albany and had 14 ½ sacks and 15 quarterback hurries there. Finished with 21 tackles for loss and 13 sacks in two years at Florida State. If he can produce anywhere near that level a little farther across the state of Florida for the Jaguars, he’ll be a state hero. And the Jags will take the next step to Super Bowl contention.
18. Cincinnati: OLU FASHANU, offensive tackle, Penn State. He didn’t have a complete NFL Combine experience for scouts, coaches and the like due to an injury, but like most prospects at tackle, he’s got size, at 6-6 and north of 300, listed at 312 pounds. He was named the Big Ten Lineman of the Year and first Penn State offensive lineman to be a consensus All-American since 1995. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who’s developing an injury problem, will love to hear that. Fashanu would help keep Burrow upright – which will help, one would think, the Bengals win.
19. Los Angeles Rams: LAIATU LATU, edge, UCLA. The most famous – or notorious – retirement in the offseason was Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, and while drafting local star Latu out of UCLA wouldn’t fill Donald’s position, it might help make up for his loss. He did have 23 ½ sacks in his last two years as a Bruin, and 34 tackles for loss. His explosiveness is what scouts rave about, and if he’s still actually on the board at 19, the Rams would be thankful.
20. Pittsburgh: TROY FAUTANU, offensive tackle/guard, Washington. The Steelers – another team with needs along the line, and a few other places, that would be difficult for them to go wrong. Fautanu is a player who’s versatile enough to play at either the tackle or the guard position, and some think he could even be a top-10 talent. Most of his time as a starter for the Huskies was at left tackle (29 games).
21. Miami: CHOP ROBINSON, edge, Penn State. Could we see another Penn State player drafted in the first round? Well, we likely will, just guessing here in our mock draft that it would be to the Dolphins, who definitely need to produce a pass rush. Robinson, with good speed even at 6-3, 254 pounds, would help them do so. He’s technically listed as an outside linebacker and was first-team All-Big Ten last season, when he had four sacks, two forced fumbles, and 7 ½ tackles for loss. The guy’s real name is Demeioun, by the way – ‘Chop’ is pretty cool.
22. San Francisco (TRADE with Philadelphia): KOOL-AID McKINSTRY, cornerback, Alabama. We have another trade on the board. The Niners might be able to get McKinstry without having to come up, but the need is definitely there and Eagles GM Howie Roseman (doesn’t that sound like a Philly guy?) always moves either up or down, rarely stands pat in the draft. We see Niners GM John Lynch making a move, as well. Now, will receiver Brandon Aiyuk still be a 49er when the draft takes place? Our bet is yes. But if the Niners still actually have the 31st pick to trade away, we’re mocking them in this draft to swap picks with Philly and draft McKinstry, a cornerback and return man who had 33 starts at Alabama and 20 pass break-ups in two seasons. It’s kind of feast-or-famine with McKinstry: he’s sometimes great and other times, he’ll break your heart, usually when he gambles on coverage at times. He is a threat as a returner, as well.
23. Minnesota: XAVIER LEGETTE, wide receiver, South Carolina. In this draft, we’re giving Drake Maye and another shiny new toy, receiver Xavier Legette, to the Vikings to go with Justin Jefferson. Can you imagine that? Legette, a 221-pound, 6-1 receiver that is built like the Niners’ Deebo Samuel (another former SC standout) but taller? That’s not fair, man. But this is a mock draft, after all.
24. Dallas: AMARIUS MIMS, offensive tackle, Georgia. This is not a defensive lineman, an edge rusher. It’s not a wide receiver, and it’s not a running back, like Jonathon Brooks out of Texas, that we almost put in this spot, to replace what the Cowboys lost. But the Cowboys have also had changes along the offensive line in the last year, and big Amarius Mims – all 6-8, 340 pounds of him – helped the Georgia Bulldogs win two national championships and almost get to a third straight College Football Playoff. He’s used to winning and even though he does need developing, the Cowboys have a track record of doing so along the offensive line. Mims could be a tackle that could pay dividends for a decade in Arlington.
25. Green Bay: TYLER GUYTON, offensive tackle, Oklahoma. Speaking of offensive lines, how about the Packers, who had a pretty solid performance last year, in spite of the loss of tackle David Bakhtiari for most of the season after a knee injury? The Pack only allowed 32 sacks of quarterback Jordan Love. We have them adding more help there in Tyler Guyton, another 6-8 prospect who weighs 322 pounds. He’s a former tight end and has some quickness, which can only help him with his development. He was a transfer from TCU to OU, and only allowed two sacks – two – in 548 pass plays at both schools. Somewhere, Jordan Love just read that and said, ‘Draft that freakin’ guy.’
26. Tampa Bay: COOPER DeJEAN, cornerback, Iowa. Even though he plays corner, DeJean, who’s got some size (6-1, 203), is tenacious and is going to remind some Bucs fans of John Lynch, the Niners GM and former Bucs safety, a Hall-of-Famer. DeJean (right) had five picks in the 2022 season and took three of them back for touchdowns. He had a punt return for a score last year. He was the Big Ten Defensive Back and Return Specialist of the Year after the most recent season. Pretty solid credentials.
27. Arizona: JER’ZAHN NEWTON, defensive tackle, Illinois. Defensive players like Newton just normally aren’t available this late in the draft, but because of the run on wide receivers, corners and offensive tackles, Newton slips. Newton is a 300-pounder who can play the run or the pass well, and started for the Illini all four seasons.
28. Buffalo: BRIAN THOMAS JR., wide receiver, LSU. Well, we all know what THIS pick is about. Got to replace the departed Stefon Diggs, shipped off to Houston. Is Thomas the real pick here, or will it be another receiver? Or will the Bills look to draft a different position and try to get a receiver later in the draft in a draft loaded with them?
Thomas is far from the 28th-best player in this draft and the Bills might not even have the chance to draft him here. He had the second-fastest 40 at the combine among receivers (4.33) and had 17 receiving touchdowns in the 2023 season, which led the FBS. He’s got the size, too, at 6-3, 209. Thomas is the complete package. So why do we have him going here, come to think of it? Well – heck, we don’t know. It’s a mock. Bills fans, enjoy it, if he falls to 28.
29. Detroit: CHRIS BRASWELL, edge, Alabama. Detroit coach Dan Campbell said Wednesday that if “their guy” isn’t there at this pick, then the Lions won’t draft at 29 and they’ll trade out of the spot. Well, Chris Braswell may very well not be there, because he may be gone, even though some are projecting him as a second-round pick. Braswell was underrated at ‘Bama, too, and came on late, but impressed before he left. Braswell had 8 ½ sacks last year – that was good enough for fourth-best in the Southeastern Conference. Sign me up for that guy, no matter what the draft experts say.
30. Baltimore: KAMARI LASSITER, cornerback, Georgia. Do the Baltimore Ravens really need a corner? Well, our people say they do. If that’s the case, Lassiter might be their guy. Thing is, he is a playmaker, at the point of attack, but he’s not known for making the pick. He only had one interception in his entire career at Georgia.
31. Philadelphia: JAVON BULLARD, safety, Georgia. Philadelphia, known for their tendency of drafting (and trading for) former Georgia players, might welcome it if Bullard, considered one of the best safeties in the draft, gets to them here. By the way, remember: we have them trading down in a trade with the 49ers in this mock. Their original position is 22. Bullard grades out as THE top safety on a lot of boards. He’s slightly under 6-foot, but known as a guy that brings the wood, a big hitter, and also a player who comes up to defend the run very well. He only defended five passes last season but he had 112 career tackles as a Bulldog and four interceptions.
32. Kansas City: KEON COLEMAN, wide receiver, Florida State. Call this a need pick, call it a “just-in-case” pick after what happened with Rashee Rice and the Dallas incident with the accident in the offseason. Call it a depth pick. Call it whatever you want. But Keon Coleman is a talent, man. The wideout from the Seminoles wouldn’t get to pick 32 if this writer was drafting. The former Michigan State receiver moved to FSU and had nine catches for 122 yards and three touchdowns against LSU. He finished the season with 50 catches for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns, and remember that his last few games were with unproven quarterbacks throwing him the football.
That’s it, that’s our mock. Remember that we’ll be here Thursday night with his real-time updates, his thoughts, as the draft progresses, and here’s hoping your team makes the pick you want – or you think that they need – to take that next step.
See ‘ya Thursday night.
(Photo credits: USAToday.com, Getty Images, LSU Athletics, 49ers.com, Athlon Sports.com, Florida State Athletics, Heavy.com, and Mitch Lucas of ETBlitz.com / Thefootballbeat.com)